Calculate Value Bet Watford Tottenham. Watford has 64% over 2.5 goals at home and 45% in total in the league. Tottenham has 82% over 2.5 away goals and 68% in total in the league.
- Total: Home / Away = 73% and 56.5% according to global statistics.
- Watford Tottenham Probability of the most 2.5 goals
- According to our formula 73% = (1/73) x 100 = a rating of 1.37
- Thus, any odds greater than at 1.37 will be considered a value bet.
What is the Betfair rating?
- Watford Tottenham Cote Betfair
- The odds offered on Betfair are at 1.96, a probability of 51.02%.
However, you must subtract 먹튀 Betfair’s commission, or -4.8 on a rating of 1.96, if the commission is 5% . The real odds proposed by Betfair is therefore 1.92 ( 52.08% probability).
According to our first analysis, we estimated the probability of more than 2.5 goals at 73% , giving a rating of 1.37.
- 92 / 1.37 = 1.40 = a positive expected value of + 40%.
From a static point of view we are in the presence of a huge value bet, with a statistical advantage, we also speak of an edge of + 40% .
Do you have to bet on such a odds? Definitely
Refine your analysis: head-to-head history
Nevertheless, the expected value is enormous and Betfair is renowned for offering odds that best reflect the probabilities of an event, so how to justify this difference?
Remember, the part of subjectivity in your analysis criteria. We have evaluated the odds based on the number of plus / minus 2.5 goals at home and away since the start of the season. Couldn’t we refine our analysis?
Let’s add an additional data, namely the number of more than 2.5 during the last 6 head-to-head in the championship or 3 games out of 6 = 50%.
- ((73 + 50) / 2) = 61.5% or an estimated odds of 1.64.
- 64 / 1.37 = 1.20 = an expected value of + 20%
We are still in a value bet position of more than 20% which encourages us to bet.
- Refine your analysis: recent performances
Now let’s change our angle a little bit. Tottenham’s best striker: Harry Kane forfeits a muscle injury, not to mention the injuries of Ndombele and Sissoko in the midfield. Forwards Eriksen and Alli are not titular either and Tottenham’s last two games have given 0-1 against them once against Liverpool 1 st in the standings and against Southampton 12 th.
Calculate Value Bet Watford vs Tottenham Historical Recent
If we tighten our analysis to the last 5 Premier League games played by Watford and Tottenham who finished with more than 2.5 goals, we only get 50% , a score equivalent to at 2.